Saber and Scroll


The past five years of modern centenary historiography commemorating WWI features very little of Frederic Harrison’s March 18, 1909 letter to the editor of The Times—a British newspaper covering contemporary national panic arising from the pre-war Anglo-German naval arms race. This letter prophesied the First World War five years before it began—decades before scientific peace-modeling emerged as a formal discipline. This study seeks to help fill this information gap by examining the content and context of this letter, how it predicted the Great War for Civilization, and how these circumstances parallel contemporary geopolitics. There is much that WWI may have to inform modern scientific peace-modeling methods, and Harrison may have possessed much insight on how to forecast war.



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